Ghana’s 2027 Budget: Agriculture, Climate and the Green Transition

The 2027 Budget makes commercial agriculture the largest pillar of a US$10 billion, four-year New Economy programme, and backs it with strong demand-side tools: "buy Ghana" rules for public food purchases, rice and sugar import quotas, and full local processing of cocoa by 2030 as a step towards banning raw cocoa exports. The green transition is real but uneven. A VAT and import-duty exemption for solar panels and batteries, a 600 MW state solar plant and new climate finance architecture sit alongside a new 1,450 MW gas plant.

The weak point is climate risk to farming itself. The Budget expects El Niño to reduce cocoa output (para 834), yet climate does not appear among its listed fiscal risks (paras 1025 to 1041). There is also no dedicated adaptation or emergency fund for farmers. And MoFA's core allocation of GH¢2.88 billion is still less than 1 percent of total 2027 spending.

The Budget in plain language

Government plans to spend GH¢375.0 billion in 2027 and expects to collect GH¢323.1 billion, so it will borrow the difference (paras 811, 817). The simplest way to see the Budget is to imagine every GH¢100 that government spends.

Out of every GH¢100 government spends in 2027

Approximate amount

What it means for you

Paid for from taxes and other revenue

GH¢86

The rest, about GH¢14, is borrowed, mostly at home through government bonds and bills (para 831).

Salaries, pensions and social security of public workers

GH¢28

Teachers, nurses, police and other public servants (para 819).

Building roads, schools, hospitals, dams and power plants

GH¢26

The government's main argument is that more money is going to assets that create jobs (paras 823, 1613).

Interest on past loans

GH¢16

Money that does not build anything new, but is lower than spending on investment (para 822).

Ministry of Food and Agriculture

Less than GH¢1

GH¢2.88 billion in government money for farming programmes (Appendix 4A).

SAIGE calculations from the Budget Statement totals. Figures are rounded and the rows do not add to GH¢100 because not every spending category is shown.

The big promises, simply put:

• Prices: inflation should end 2027 at about 8 percent, up from 5.5 percent in October 2026 (paras 582, 796).
• Growth: the economy should grow by at least 5.2 percent in 2027 (para 796).
• Taxes: the tax section announces reviews of existing laws, but no new tax rates. The main change people will feel is that solar panels and batteries will be free of import duty and VAT (para 869).
• The New Economy: GH¢30 billion in 2027, and US$10 billion by 2030, for farming, energy, minerals, tourism, textiles, medicines and technology. It is paid for by lowering the primary surplus target by 1 percent of GDP and by revenue of 0.5 percent of GDP from tax reforms already approved by Parliament (paras 246 to 249).
• Roads: GH¢29.8 billion for the Big Push road programme, including GH¢2 billion for a Market Access and Connectivity Project (paras 1553, 1629).
• Electricity: GH¢3 billion to take electricity to more rural communities, and GH¢50 million to support lifeline (low-use) electricity customers (paras 1547, 1549).
• Youth: an extra GH¢1 billion freed up for youth employment and apprenticeships (para 901).

Agriculture: where the money goes

Agriculture is funded through three channels in 2027: MoFA's own budget, the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture, and the US$3 billion Commercial Agriculture pillar of the New Economy. Only the first two have line-by-line allocations in the Budget Statement.

Ministry of Food and Agriculture: GH¢2.88 billion of government money

MoFA line (Appendix 4A, government funds)

2027 allocation

Machinery for 50 Farmer Service Centres

GH¢800.0 million

Fertiliser and certified seed (grains, vegetables, roots and tubers)

GH¢515.3 million

Construction of silos

GH¢500.0 million

MoFA headquarters and agencies (including GH¢301.0 million in staff costs)

GH¢456.4 million

Poultry Farm-to-Table (Nkoko Nkitinkiti)

GH¢245.0 million

National Food Buffer Stock Company

GH¢200.0 million

Irrigation infrastructure

GH¢105.0 million

Feed Ghana Programme

GH¢60.0 million

Total, government funds

GH¢2,881.7 million

With donor loans and grants of about GH¢701 million and MoFA's internally generated funds, the ministry's total 2027 envelope is GH¢3.63 billion. Development partners therefore fund about one-fifth of MoFA's budget (Appendix 4A, foreign loans and grants). More than half of the government allocation (GH¢1.56 billion) is capital spending, mainly on machinery, silos and irrigation.

What MoFA promises to deliver in 2027: 79,900 tonnes of fertiliser and 2,018 tonnes of certified seed under Feed Ghana (para 1193). For comparison, 36,506 tonnes of inorganic fertiliser were distributed in 2026 (para 1191), so the 2027 target more than doubles fertiliser delivery. MoFA will also expand the Feed Ghana Brigade of extension officers. The extension agent-to-farmer ratio has improved from 1:1,567 in 2024 to 1:768, still above the recommended 1:500 (paras 1198, 1200).

Delivery so far: construction began on only 10 Farmer Service Centres in 2026, with 1,840 machines being procured (para 1197), against the 50 now funded. Several irrigation schemes are between 54 and 94 percent complete, and would add about 3,220 hectares of irrigated land once Afram Plains, Atonsu, Ekyeamanfrom and Konadu are finished (para 1194).

Fisheries and Aquaculture: GH¢394 million

The Budget gives GH¢100 million each for fish markets, women and youth in aquaculture, and fishing inputs and outboard motors, plus GH¢29 million for the Anomabo Fisheries College (para 1545). The context is serious: fishing output contracted by 22.5 percent in the first half of 2026 (para 573), and Ghana has an estimated fish supply gap of 500,000 tonnes a year (para 303).

The New Economy: US$3 billion for commercial agriculture, 2027 to 2030

Value chain

Target

Key tools (Budget paragraphs)

Rice

100,000 more hectares, 5 to 6 t/ha, about 125,000 jobs; commercial imports banned by 2030

Rice hubs in Afram Plains, Volta Basin, Western and Northern Ghana; tax incentives; import licences tied to local purchases from 2027 (paras 274 to 286)

Sugar

Self-sufficiency by 2030

Nucleus estates, outgrowers, mills; declining import permits and quotas (paras 290 to 292)

Poultry and feed

Full value chain; feed is 60 to 70% of costs

Anchor farms, multi-year buyer contracts, maize and soya clusters; Ghana EXIM Bank to put at least 40% of its levy into poultry and feed from 2027 (paras 294 to 299, 907)

Aquaculture

Close a 500,000-tonne fish gap

Broodstock, fingerlings, cages, labs; patient finance and insurance (paras 303 to 310)

Oil palm

100,000 new hectares; self-sufficiency and export scale by 2032; 250,000+ jobs

US$500 million World Bank window, five-year moratorium; land already identified (paras 312 to 318)

Vegetables

Vegetable self-sufficiency

US$1 billion Pwalugu Multipurpose Dam: 25,000 irrigated hectares, 1,000 fish cages, 70 MW hydro; phase one early 2029 (paras 320 to 327)

Cocoa

50% processed locally by 2028, 100% by 2030, then a raw bean export ban

Expansion into liquor, butter, powder, chocolate and cosmetics (paras 330 to 331)

Two cross-cutting measures matter most for farmers. Public procurement law will be amended so that public money for food in schools, hospitals and other institutions buys only food grown in Ghana (para 278). And a single farm-to-market system will link land, water, seed, mechanisation and extension to storage, processing, transport and buyers (paras 265 to 267).

Cocoa

Cocoa production recovered to 771,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season, but world prices fell 48.9 percent in the first nine months of 2026 (paras 772, 1146). COCOBOD's debt stands at GH¢30.55 billion, and the 2026/27 crop is being financed through a new domestic model using an SPV, cocoa bonds and commercial paper (paras 1147 to 1148). The Budget expects El Niño to reduce cocoa output in 2027 (para 834).

Climate and the green transition

The Budget has no single climate chapter. Its green measures are spread across energy, environment, lands, coastal works and finance. Taken together, they show a clear push on solar and on cleaning up mining damage, with less attention to helping farmers adapt.

Energy: more solar, but gas still carries the load

The US$2 billion Energy Infrastructure pillar plans a state-owned 600 MW solar plant with 2,000 MWh of battery storage, alongside a state-owned 1,450 MW gas-fired thermal plant at Kafodzidzi-Abrobeano, with construction starting in December 2026 (paras 342 to 347). Government aims to phase out emergency power plants by 2030 and cut generation costs from about 16 to 8 US cents per kWh (paras 356, 366). It is also spending US$200 million on a two-year nuclear readiness programme (para 375), and US$500 million to modernise transmission, plus 2 million prepaid meters (paras 360 to 362).

Other renewable activity includes:

• Solar plants: a 60 MWp Bui plant has been completed, 100 MWp and 50 MWp plants are due by year end, the first phase of a Pwalugu solar plant has been commissioned, and a 200 MW solar-plus-storage project is to be expedited (paras 1289, 1292).
• Off-grid power: 35 mini-grids for 47 island and lakeside communities, and 645 net-metering solar installations in 2027 (para 1282).
• Clean cooking: 485,000 improved cookstoves distributed, with carbon credit verification completed. LPG access is targeted at 38 percent of households (paras 1290, 1294).

The measure most households and farmers will feel: solar panels and batteries will be exempt from import duty and VAT. The Minister specifically urged farmers to use solar for irrigation (paras 866 to 875).

Environment, forests, mining and the coast

Measure

2027 allocation or target

Budget reference

Reclaiming land damaged by mining

GH¢400 million

para 1584

Anti-illegal mining operations (NAIMOS)

GH¢200 million; shift from periodic raids to sustained denial of access to rivers and forests

paras 1234, 1584

Mercury-free small-scale mining

At least 50 cooperative mining schemes; GH¢30 million

paras 1236, 1584

Tree for Life reforestation

GH¢20 million. In 2026, 22.24 million seedlings were planted against a 30 million target

paras 1226, 1584

Sea defence and coastal protection

GH¢250 million Blekusu, GH¢500 million other sea defences, GH¢685 million Keta (WACA, foreign loan)

paras 1557 to 1558

Waste and recycling

GH¢400 million recycling and composting plants, GH¢200 million for 10 engineered landfills

para 1578

Emergency Disaster Management Fund

GH¢100 million

para 1591

Polystyrene foam ban

From 1 January 2027

para 1263

Marine protection

Greater Cape Three Points declared a Marine Protected Area (703.86 km²)

para 1213

Climate finance

Government has started Phase III of the Ghana Green Finance Taxonomy, with a stronger focus on adaptation and resilience. It has updated the Ghana Climate Prosperity Plan and secured US$3 million in Green Climate Fund readiness support. In 2027 it will help the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund become a GCF-accredited national entity (paras 1143 to 1145). These are important building blocks for channelling climate finance into agriculture, but the Budget does not attach amounts or agricultural targets to them.

What is missing on climate

• Climate is not a listed fiscal risk. The Budget names commodity prices, revenue leakage, wages and legal claims (paras 1025 to 1041), even though it expects El Niño to cut cocoa output (para 834). The June 2026 floods also forced a GH¢226 million reallocation (para 1299).
• There is no agricultural adaptation or emergency fund. Farmer groups had called for one ahead of the expected El Niño dry season, but it is not in the Budget.
• Carbon markets are barely mentioned. Beyond cookstove credits, the Budget does not set out how carbon finance could support agriculture, forestry or land restoration.
• Reforestation funding is small. GH¢20 million for Tree for Life is modest next to a 30 million-seedling annual target that was already missed in 2026.

What it means for farmers, households and young people

If you are a smallholder farmer: more subsidised fertiliser and seed is promised for 2027, almost 80,000 tonnes of fertiliser compared with about 36,500 tonnes distributed in 2026. More tractors and machines should reach districts through the Farmer Service Centres, and more extension officers through the Feed Ghana Brigade. Schools and hospitals will be required to buy Ghanaian food, which could give you a steadier buyer. The key question is timing: inputs must arrive before the rains.

If you grow rice, maize, soya or keep poultry: these are the value chains with the clearest new support. Rice millers will need local supply to get import licences. Poultry and feed farmers can look to Ghana EXIM Bank, which must put at least 40 percent of its levy into the sector from 2027.

If you fish or farm fish: GH¢100 million is set aside for fishing inputs and outboard motors, and another GH¢100 million for women and youth in aquaculture. Expect stricter rules after a 2027 stock assessment, which could bring closed seasons and gear limits (para 1221).

If you are a cocoa farmer: the Budget's cocoa focus is on processing, not farm-gate support. Watch for how the new cocoa financing model and the push to process all cocoa locally affect prices and payment times.

For households: going solar should become cheaper once the duty and VAT exemption on panels and batteries takes effect. More rural communities in the northern and western regions should get grid electricity, and lifeline electricity customers get GH¢50 million of support. Food prices could ease over time if local production and storage improve, but the Budget expects inflation to end 2027 at about 8 percent, higher than today.

For young people: the rice hubs (about 125,000 jobs) and oil palm programme (more than 250,000 jobs) are the biggest job promises in agriculture. The removal of the cap on youth employment funding frees up GH¢1 billion. These are targets over four or more years, not 2027 jobs.

SAIGE assessment: strengths, gaps and risks

The 2027 Budget sets out a commercially coherent agriculture plan. Its credibility will depend on how much of the money is released, and when, and on how the system copes with a changing climate.

Strengths

• It treats markets as the problem. "Buy Ghana" procurement, import licences tied to local purchases, silos and buffer stocks deal with demand and storage, not just production.
• Each value chain has a plan. Eight value chains each get their own targets, financing structure and delivery unit, which makes them easier to track (para 264).
• The finance is designed for the crops. A five-year moratorium for oil palm and a dedicated EXIM levy share for poultry show finance being matched to how each crop actually earns money.
• Solar gets a real push. The solar import exemption is a practical, low-cost step that directly helps irrigation and cold storage.

Gaps and risks

• Agriculture's share is still small. MoFA's GH¢2.88 billion is about 0.77 percent of the GH¢375.0 billion total (SAIGE calculation). Farmer groups have asked for the 10 percent pledged under the AU's CAADP. Even if agriculture took its pro rata 30 percent of the GH¢30 billion New Economy allocation, about GH¢9 billion, the combined share would be roughly 3 percent. This is an illustrative estimate: the Budget does not state the 2027 New Economy split by pillar.
• Releases are not addressed. In June 2026, MoFA and the Finance Ministry publicly disagreed over whether 85 percent or 12.4 percent of MoFA's budget had been released. The Budget pledges that all New Economy commitments will be transparently reported (para 253), but sets out no quarterly release reporting for MoFA.
• Delivery capacity is stretched. Only 10 Farmer Service Centres were started in 2026, yet 50 are funded for 2027. Fertiliser delivery must more than double.
• Climate risk is under-priced. El Niño is acknowledged for cocoa but not built into the risk framework, and there is no farm-level adaptation fund.
• Donor dependence remains. About one-fifth of MoFA's 2027 resources come from foreign loans and grants.
• Some figures do not match. The speech says rural electrification extends to six regions (para 1547), but Appendix 4A labels the same GH¢3 billion for "additional three regions". Fisheries is GH¢400 million in the speech and GH¢394 million in the appendix. These should be clarified in the detailed estimates.

What it means for each audience

Banks and lenders. The best-structured opportunities are oil palm (a US$500 million patient-finance window with a five-year moratorium), poultry and feed (EXIM levy funding), and rice milling (tax incentives plus guaranteed offtake through licence-linked purchases). Lenders should find out whether New Economy guarantees will be first-loss and who will administer them. Solar-powered irrigation and cold storage become more bankable once the duty and VAT exemption applies. Climate stress-testing of farm portfolios is now essential, given the El Niño warning.

Agribusinesses and operators. Prepare for procurement rules that require Ghanaian-grown food in schools and hospitals, and for the verification and traceability that will come with them. Rice millers should secure local supply contracts early, since import licences will depend on them. Cocoa processors and new entrants have a two-year runway to the 50 percent local processing target in 2028. Feed millers should engage with the maize and soya cluster contracts.

Investors. Eight value chains with 2030 targets make sector screening easier. The largest capital needs are in oil palm (100,000 hectares, with land already identified), sugar estates and mills, cocoa processing and the Pwalugu irrigation enclave. Key due-diligence risks are the year-by-year cash allocation, land acquisition timelines, and policy risk from import bans and quotas.

Government and policymakers. Three low-cost steps would raise credibility: publish quarterly MoFA and New Economy releases by value chain; set dated procurement milestones for seed and fertiliser before the 2027 main season; and add climate to the fiscal risk statement with a contingent financing line for agriculture. Linking the Green Finance Taxonomy and GCF accreditation to specific agricultural adaptation projects would turn climate finance architecture into money on farms.

What SAIGE will watch next

1. The New Economy split: how much of the GH¢30 billion for 2027 goes to Commercial Agriculture, and to which of the eight value chains.
2. Input timing: when procurement of the 79,900 tonnes of fertiliser and 2,018 tonnes of seed is completed, relative to the 2027 main season.
3. Releases: whether MoFA and the Finance Ministry publish releases on one agreed basis, and how often.
4. The procurement law amendment: when it passes, and how Ghanaian origin will be verified.
5. Finance instruments: the size and design of the DBG and EXIM credit guarantees and leasing lines, and whether GIRSAL is involved.
6. Climate preparedness: any mid-year response to El Niño, and whether the GCF and Green Finance Taxonomy work produces funded agricultural adaptation projects.
7. The solar exemption: when it takes effect, and whether it covers solar pumps and cold-storage systems used on farms.

The bottom line

The 2027 Budget has a clear theory of change for Ghanaian agriculture: grow what we eat, process what we grow, and use public demand to guarantee the market. Its green transition is real at the household level, through cheaper solar, but uneven at the national level, with a large new gas plant. What it still lacks is protection for farmers against the climate shocks that the Budget itself expects. SAIGE Africa will track delivery throughout 2027.

SAIGE Africa. Evidence. Intelligence. Action.

Sources

Primary source: Ministry of Finance, The New Economy, New Ghana, Jobs and Prosperity: 2027 Budget Statement and Economic Policy, presented to Parliament on 12 November 2026.